About this report

The EBRD seeks to foster the transition to an open market-oriented economy and to promote entrepreneurship in the economies where it invests. To perform this task effectively, the Bank needs to analyse and understand the process of transition. The purpose of the Transition Report is to advance this understanding and to share our analysis with partners.

Responsibility for the content of the report is taken by the Office of the Chief Economist. The assessments and views expressed are not necessarily those of the EBRD. All assessments and data in the online country assessments are based on information as of late October 2021.

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See www.ebrd.com

Disclaimer

The contents of this publication reflect the opinions of individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EBRD.

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Abbreviations: For charts in this Transition Report, the abbreviations used for each economy follow the ISO 3166-1 three-letter economy codes published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).

Note: The complex coding required for some of our online charts may limit their ability to display in some browsers and to export successfully.

Note: Terms, names, charts and maps used in this report to refer to geographical or other territories, political and economic groupings and units, do not constitute and should not be construed as constituting an express or implied position, endorsement, acceptance or expression of opinion by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or its members concerning the status of any country, territory, grouping and unit, or delimitation of its borders, or sovereignty.

Hyperlinks to non-EBRD websites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-EBRD sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.

Acknowledgements

The Transition Report 2021-22 was prepared by the Office of the Chief Economist of the EBRD, with contributions from other EBRD departments and under the general direction of Beata Javorcik.

The editors of the report are Ralph De Haas and Alexander Plekhanov.

Luigi Crucil provided research assistance.

The writing teams for the chapters, boxes and annexes comprised:

Chapter 1

Daniel Diez Alonso, Zsoka Koczan (team leader) and Philipp Paetzold.

Box 1.1 was prepared by Alexander Plekhanov and Shantanu Singh.
Box 1.2 was prepared by Ammar Al-Saleh and Ivan Rossignol.
Box 1.3 was prepared by Milica Delević and Ammar Al-Saleh.
Box 1.4 was prepared by Caroline Galvan.
Box 1.5 was prepared by Julia Anderson, Giorgio Manenti and Philipp Paetzold.
Annex 1.1 was prepared by Paul Moffatt.

Chapter 2

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jonas Hjort, Beata Javorcik, Banu Demir Pakel, Han Wang and Nathaniel Young (team leader), with contributions from Victoria Marino, Alexander Stepanov and Kirstin Wacker.

Box 2.1 was prepared by Cevat Giray Aksoy, Beata Javorcik and Banu Demir Pakel.
Box 2.2 was prepared by Nathaniel Young.
Box 2.3 was prepared by Lara Gungor, Antonia Maier and Dino Shiatis.
Box 2.4 was prepared by Sebastian Kriticos and Jinrui Liu.
Box 2.5 was prepared by John Seed.

Chapter 3

Joop Adema, Cevat Giray Aksoy and Michelle Brock (team leader).

Box 3.1 was prepared by Joop Adema and Michelle Brock.
Box 3.2 was prepared by Joop Adema and Michelle Brock.
Box 3.3 was prepared by Joop Adema and Cevat Giray Aksoy.
Box 3.4 was prepared by Joop Adema and Cevat Giray Aksoy.
Box 3.5 was prepared by Francesca Dalla Pozza and Marko Stermsek.
Box 3.6 was prepared by Joop Adema and Michelle Brock.

Chapter 4

Cevat Aksoy, Çağatay Bircan (team leader), Ralph De Haas, Victoria Marino and Kirstin Wacker.

Box 4.1 was prepared by Raphael Auer, Sebastian Doerr, Jon Frost and Leonardo Gambacorta.
Box 4.2 was prepared by Elisabeth Beckmann and Antje Hildebrandt.
Box 4.3 was prepared by Cevat Giray Aksoy and Orkun Saka.
Box 4.4 was prepared by Çağatay Bircan, Jacek Kubas and Polyxeni Pentidou.

Chapter 5

Alexander Plekhanov (team co-leader), Borbala Siklos, Rada Tomova (team co-leader), with contributions from Dan Meshulam and Philipp Paetzold.

Box 5.1 was prepared by Florian Lalanne and Rada Tomova.

An early version of the Financial Market Development Index was created in cooperation with Jason Lermyte, Nicola Marinelli, Yannick Naud and Bruno Papadacci of the Université Paris-Dauphine, London Campus, as part of a technical cooperation (TC) project supported by the EBRD Shareholder Special Fund. Borbala Siklos led the TC project, with contributions from Hannes Takacs and Kensuke Yazu.

Structural reform

Umidjon Abdullaev (team leader) and Anna Sali, with contributions from sector and regional economists and analysts.

The online country assessments at tr-ebrd.com were prepared by the regional economists and analysts of the Economics, Policy and Governance Department and edited by Peter Sanfey.

Editorial, multimedia and production guidance for the report was provided by Bianca Beks, Poilin Breathnach, Dermot Doorly, Hannah Fenn, Cathy Goudie, Dan Kelly, Axel Reiserer, Viktorija Quartly, Jonathan Wells, Bryan Whitford and Richard Porter in the EBRD Communications Department, and by Matthew Hart and Helen Valvona. The Transition Report 2021-22 was designed and print-managed by Blackwood Creative Ltd; www.weareblackwood.com.

The report benefited from comments and suggestions from the EBRD Board of Directors and their authorities, the EBRD staff and staff from the European Commission, European Investment Bank, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group.

Glossary

AML/CFT rules: Rules combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism
ABC Initiative: Accelerating Broadband Connectivity Initiative
AI: Artificial intelligence
ATA carnets: International customs documents that allow temporary entry of goods on a duty-free and tax-free basis
ATQ scores: “Assessment of transition qualities” scores
BCBS: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
BEPS III: Banking Environment and Performance Survey III
BIS: Bank for International Settlements
CBDCs: Central bank digital currencies
CCAF: Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance
CCPs: Central clearing counterparties
CCS: Carbon capture and storage
CEB: Central Europe and the Baltic states
CEO: Chief executive officer
CIESEN: Center for International Earth Science Information Network
CSDs: Central securities depositories
CSDR: Central Securities Depositories Regulation
Cyberhygiene: Includes raising awareness, securely configuring equipment and networks, updating software, not giving unnecessary system privileges or data access rights to staff and users, and traning
DVP: Delivery versus payment
EBRD, the Bank: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ECN+: European Competition Network
EEC: Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
EFF: Electronic Frontier Foundation
EIB: European Investment Bank
EMIR: European Market Infrastructure Regulation
ETFs: Exchange-traded funds
ETSI: European Telecommunications Standards Institute
EU: European Union
FCA: The United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority
FDI: Foreign direct investment
FMDI: Financial Market Development Index
GDP: Gross domestic product
GMRAs: General master repurchase agreements
GPAI: Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence
GRP: Gross regional product
GSE: Georgian State Electrosystem
GVC: Global value chain
ICMA: International Capital Market Association
ICSDs: International central securities depositories
ICT: Information and communication technology
ICT unicorns: Privately held companies with a valuation in excess of US$ 1 billion
IFI: International financial institution
IFRS: International Financial Reporting Standards
ILO: International Labour Organization
IMF: International Monetary Fund
INDCs: Intended nationally determined contributions
INFPO: Latvia’s Information Society Development Guidelines
IOSCO: International Organization of Securities Commissions
ISDA: International Swaps and Derivatives Association
ISIC: International Standard Industrial Classification
ISO: International Organization for Standardization
ITU: International Telecommunication Union
NACE: Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Union
NDCs: Nationally determined contributions
NPLs: Non-performing loans
NUTS 2: Second level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics
OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OeNB: Austrian National Bank, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
OTC trading: Over-the-counter trading
PIAAC: Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies
PIN: Personal identification number
PPP: Public-private partnership
P2P: Peer to peer
R&D: Research and development
RDD: Regression discontinuity design
Repo agreements: Repurchase agreements
RTI: Routine task intensity
SEE: South-eastern Europe
SEMED: Southern and eastern Mediterranean
SMEs: Small and medium-sized enterprises
TCFD: The Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures
TFP: Total factor productivity
UN: United Nations
UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UNESCO: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
US GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
WEF: World Economic Forum

Country abbreviations

For charts in this Transition Report, the abbreviations used for each economy follow the ISO 3166-1 three-letter economy codes published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).

Contact us

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Office of the Chief Economist

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Email: economics@ebrd.com
Chief Economist: Beata Javorcik

Last updated on 10 November 2021